Let's begin with that age-old adage: "Offense wins games. Defense wins championships." As such, we’ll next take a peek at the past ten Super Bowls and see how well that quote holds up:
2010: New Orleans Saints
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers
2008: New York Giants
2007: Indianapolis Colts
2006: Pittsburgh Steelers
2005: New England Patriots
2004: New England Patriots
2003: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2002: New England Patriots
2001: Baltimore Ravens
What do all ten of these teams have in common? They each had good/great defenses AND placed a commitment on the run game (and essentially, offensive balance). While each team possessed either a good or great defense, creating turnovers are critical to winning a football game and each team was able to take the football away from their Super Bowl opponent:
2010: New Orleans Saints (forced 1 turnover)
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers (forced 2 turnovers)
2008: New York Giants (forced 1 turnover)
2007: Indianapolis Colts (forced 5 turnovers)
2006: Pittsburgh Steelers (forced 1 turnover)
2005: New England Patriots (forced 4 turnovers)
2004: New England Patriots (forced 1 turnover)
2003: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (forced 5 turnovers)
2002: New England Patriots (forced 3 turnovers)
2001: Baltimore Ravens (forced 5 turnovers)
Now, let us take a look at the rushing attempts for each Super Bowl winner:
2010: New Orleans Saints (18 rushing attempts, 19 for the opponent)
2009: Pittsburgh Steelers (26 rushing attempts, 12 for the opponent)
2008: New York Giants (26 rushing attempts, 16 for the opponent)
2007: Indianapolis Colts (42 rushing attempts, 19 for the opponent)
2006: Pittsburgh Steelers (33 rushing attempts, 25 for the opponent)
2005: New England Patriots (28 rushing attempts, 17 for the opponent)
2004: New England Patriots (35 rushing attempts, 16 for the opponent)
2003: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42 rushing attempts, 11 for the opponent)
2002: New England Patriots (15 rushing attempts, 22 for the opponent)
2001: Baltimore Ravens (33 rushing attempts, 16 for the opponent)
With the exception of two teams (the '10 New Orleans, the '02 Patriots), each Super Bowl winner committed more to the running game despite boasting viable options at QB (Peyton Manning (’06 Colts), Eli Manning (’07 Giants), Ben Roethlisberger (’05, ’08 Steelers for starters) and of course, Tom Brady (’01, ’03, ’04 Patriots). This is what the New England Patriots have lacked in their past three postseason games: a commitment to running the football. Looking back at this season's loss to the New York Bi-Planes, the Jets decided to slow New England's vaunted passing game down by dropping eight defensive backs into coverage, leaving star cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie on islands alone to cover the outside receivers and allowing the rest of the defensive backs to blanket the middle of the field where New England dismantled them with their TEs and slot receivers in a 45-3 pasting during the regular season.
In a sense, Jets coach Rex Ryan decided to go all-out in defense of the pass in order to stop Tom Brady from beating the Jets... similar to a strategy that New England's head coach Bill Belichick used once before, to famously stifle the St. Louis Rams' "Greatest Show On Turf" in 2002's Super Bowl upset that launched the New England dynasty. Had St. Louis placed a heavy emphasis on future Hall Of Fame running back Marshall Faulk in that game, they just may have found a way to win that Super Bowl just as had New England put a strong emphasis on pounding the football at a bevy of weaker defensive backs with BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the second half, they would have shortened the game (which would have played into the Jets' gameplan), BUT in a close game with very few possessions, would you rather have 3-time Super Bowl winning QB Tom Brady or second year quarterback Mark Sanchez?
Seeing as how the New England Patriots season is over, for now, the one thing fans have to look forward to is the off-season and the upcoming draft. The Patriots currently possess three picks in the first 33 of the draft (#17 & #28 in the first round and the initial pick (#33 overall) in the second round). As always, I'm sure Belichick will trade down to amass more picks in adding complimentary picks (and players) for present and future New England squads. What the Patriots need is an all-purpose threat at running back (both bruiser and breakaway) and to get younger & stronger along the interior of the offensive line. Before the emergence of Green-Ellis at halfback this past season, it was heavily thought that Belichick may draft Alabama back Mark Ingram (of Alabama) to fill that need. Adding a dynamic runner such as Ingram to a stable that already included Green-Ellis (I’m certain he’ll be resigned) and Woodhead might be just what New England needs for the light bulb to click on and to re-place a heavy commitment to the run as Brady continues through his prime years into the twilight of his career.
As Ben Roethlisberger prepares to enter the AFC Championship game this evening with a shot of his own at Lombardi trophy #3, you could argue he followed a similar route of success as Tom Brady: a strong emphasis on the running game (despite a porous & injury-riddled offensive line), minimizing mistakes and a great defense behind him. The New England Patriots, despite a inconsistent pass rush, led the league in forcing turnovers and even gave the Patriots a chance to beat the Jets in the divisional game this year (the Jets led just 14-11 heading into the fourth quarter, despite a inconsistent effort from the New England offense). With returning veteran contributors in defensive end Ty Warren and cornerback Leigh Bodden returning as well as starting rookies Devin McCourty (a future shutdown corner), linebackers Brandon Spikes and Jermaine Cunningham gaining valuable experience as starters, the defense can only get better as they grow younger & faster (I expect another addition or two will be made through the draft as well with 6 picks in the first three rounds).
THIS is the reason the Patriots have not hoisted a Super Bowl trophy since 2005. This is also the reason in which the Indianapolis Colts have won only one Super Bowl during the Peyton Manning era: too much emphasis on the passing game (and on the arm of a future Hall of Fame quarterback) and not as much on the running game (and balance on the offensive side of the ball). The running game 1) slows the tempo, shortening the game and 2) batters the opposing defense's front seven and wears them down in time for the fourth quarter. A strong passing game will win you many regular season games (as Peyton Manning knows all too well by now), but in the postseason, you have to be able to establish the run to open up the passing game or else, you will lose when the games get bigger and the stakes are much higher. I'll conclude with what I feel should be the New England Patriots' focus on this upcoming offseason:
1) Resign their best offensive lineman in Logan Mankins.
2) Move Sebastian Vollmer from right tackle to left tackle. Sea Bass is a more physical runblocker than Matt Light and is great in pass blocking as well.
3) Draft to get stronger & younger on the interior offensive line and at right tackle. Dan Connolly filled in admirably at RG and unless a change is made to center, he should continue to do so. Dan Koppen lacks the push up front at center to power the running game or to protect from blitzes, designed to get into Brady's face.
4) Add an all-purpose player to the backfield, whether through the draft (Mark Ingram) or free agency/trades (I’ve heard DeAngelo Williams name thrown around).
5) Add another pass rusher to the defense, either a stud on the defensive line or at outside linebacker. As more teams switch to the 34 defense, it becomes harder and harder to find a game changing OLB (in the vein of DeMarcus Ware or Clay Matthews Jr.)
6) I'd also look into a replacement at safety for Brandon Merriweather, one that is able to cover and limit mistakes as Pat Chung's liability is in his ability to cover and is more at home in the box to help stifle the run.
Yep. Likely, the only way for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to win another Super Bowl is by taking the ball out of its best player's hands. Look at it this way: it was thought that John Elway would end his career without ever winning a Super Bowl… and then the Broncos drafted Terrell Davis. Elway went on to conclude his career by winning back-to-back Super Bowls.
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